colchester united: 5 games in
As Morecambe prepare to take on Colchester United at the weekend, we take a glance at what the Shrimps can expect from this Danny Cowley side.
Just 18 years ago, in the 2006-07 season, the then Colchester manager Geraint Williams alongside Jamie Cureton, Chris Iwelumo & Co were fighting for a potential spot in the Championship playoffs, despite being newcomers to the division themselves after last season's 2nd-place finish in League One. The U's ultimately finished in 10th place, narrowly missing out on a top-six finish by 6 points. This marked the club's best-ever league finish in its history and brought plenty of optimism for the future.
Jamie Cureton & Chris Iwelumo
In the 17 seasons that followed, the side from Essex have endured two relegations, a 30% decline in attendances and for 3 of the last 4 seasons had fans sweat over a return to non-league for the first time since 1992.
Rather than what happened and why, perhaps the most pertinent question for Colchester is what now?
The pragmatic Danny Cowley took over as head coach of The U's in January 2024 with the team rolling both over (and down the table) in 22nd place having lost 8 of their previous 10 games. The managerial change reaped immediate rewards with defeats turning into draws and even the occasional win. However, it still took a tense 1-1 draw at home to Crewe Alexandra on the final day of the season for Colchester to secure their Football League status. With Danny Cowley overseeing an average PPG (points per game) of 1.1 from 20 games compared to the previous 0.88 combined PPG under previous head coaches Ben Garner and Matthew Etherington, the future looked, well, slightly less bleak for Colchester fans.
Fast forward past a non-existent British summer and 14 signings later and Cowley's team finds itself in 18th place after 5 games, fresh off two successive 1-1 draws with both Accrington and Bromley. Considering some of the summer signings include the likes of Jack Payne, Lyle Taylor, Teddy Bishop, and John-Kymani Gordon, you'd be forgiven for thinking the current league position is a typo caused by my clumsy fingers. But is this early league position unjust so far, or is it an accurate indication of another season of struggle for The U's?
At first glance, Colchester, who have primarily lined-up in a 3-1-4-2 formation so far this season, have some encouraging statistical outliers. They have ex-Huddersfield Town midfielder Jack Payne topping both the leagues assist (3) and chances created chart (16), enjoy the 4th highest average possession (55%) in the league, the most amount of touches in the opposition box (133) and have the leagues highest shots on target per match with a rate of 5.6.
In possession, Colchester operates in a 3-1-4-2 shape, with captain and CB Tom Flanagan taking charge of the initial phase of build-up. LCB Iandolo often drifts wider into a traditional left-back position, supported by Jack Payne and LWB John-Kymani Gordon, who offer additional numbers on that flank. Meanwhile, RCB Hunt and RWB Egbo shift across laterally, creating a relatively flat back four. With play heavily focused on the left, Hunt is rarely utilized in possession, and on the occasions Mandela Egbo, the 27 year old former Crystal Palace and Borussia Mönchengladbach player receives the ball on the right he is allowed plenty of space to roam into.
Colchester prefer not to play the ball long, opting instead when needing to play ever so slightly more direct to play low driven balls into their strikers. Tovide being especially effective at holding up the ball thanks in part to his low centre of gravity. Either Alex Woodyard or Arthur Read depending on selection tend to operate in the DM spot and provide a screen and protection against the counter, with Jack Payne and Teddy Bishop allowed to swap positions from LCM and RCM in more advanced positions. Payne enjoys a lot of touches and passes in a game and will sit slightly deeper seeking the ball, with Bishop preferring to operate slightly higher and provide more of a shooting threat.
Out of possession, Colchester adopts an aggressive press involving both strikers, the nearest wing-back, and the central midfielders (LCM and RCM). Jack Payne, in particular, excels at pressuring the opposition ball carrier, while Bishop is tasked with blocking passing lanes. However, Colchester's defensive transition can be problematic, as a significant gap often develops between the backline and the more advanced pressing unit. This gap leaves the team vulnerable to counter-attacks. On the left side, Gordon’s advanced and more central positioning frequently exposes Iandolo to overloads or one-on-one situations with opposition players. As a result, the team risks conceding space and losing defensive solidity on that flank, especially when Gordon is more reserved in his tracking-back.
Looking deeper at the percentage of possession enjoyed by Colchester in their opening 5 games, it's clear that the technically gifted team Cowley has sought to assemble are more than capable and are equally as keen to attempt to control the game with the ball on the ground. You soon begin to realise, however, that most of the ball is enjoyed in their own half and a big contributor to this arguably sterile possession is from Colchester’s desire to play out from the back from goal-kick situations. Colchester’s new 30 year old goalkeeper Matt Macey will nearly always look to play the ball to centre-back Tom Flanagan.
The combination of defender Iandolo, and midfielders Payne and Gordon often situated on the left sided areas of the pitch, in theory, provide solid ground to retain the ball, break lines and work through the opposition. However, in reality (and in particular against Accrington Stanley) Colchester have struggled when facing teams employing a man-to-man system and a large percentage of the time end up having to revert to playing the ball back to ‘keeper Macey who is forced (either by opposition pressure or pure frustration) to kick balls long to strikers Taylor or Tovide with a poor completion rate.
Example of Colchester's passing routes when in their build-up phase of play against Accrington.
A big focus of the tactical set-up in controlled possession for Colchester as mentioned above is on the left/left-central areas of the pitch. Above we have an example of the preferred passing routes and combinations for Colchester when in the build-up phase of possession against Accrington on GW4. It was evident Colchester’s biggest issue when trying to progress the ball up the field came in big part from the position taken up (either tactically intended or not) from #11 John-Kymani Gordon.
The 21 year old winger (who signed on a free in the summer following the expiry of his Crystal Palace contract) enjoyed just 20 touches in the 55 minutes he spent on the pitch before being substituted. Gordon's tendency to drift inside, perhaps due to his right-footedness, limited Colchester’s width. This not only made his positioning predictable but also congested the central areas, reducing the team’s ability to stretch Accrington’s defence. This also resulted in the passing lanes to him from both Iandolo and Flanagan being easily covered by the Accrington defence and midfield.
When on the ball in his own half with his back to goal, Gordon focused on ball retention and often chose a pass backwards and on the occasions he found pockets of space with the ball in front of him attempted to drive and progress the ball upfield with his head down, resulting in him being easily shepherded into central areas and the ball being turned over to Accrington.
John-Kymani Gordon seems very much to still be attempting to find his feet at Colchester and their set-up as evidenced by his subsequent dropping to the bench for their following match against Bromley (introduced for the final 19 minutes on the right hand side offering no-more than a couple of overhit crosses) with Danny Cowley preferring to go with Harry Anderson from the start, who, despite his experience, also faced similar challenges on the left flank. Anderson's apparent lack of fitness might have compounded these issues, as he too struggled to provide width and penetration, although he had looked more comfortable in the previous game versus Accrington when coming on and playing more centrally in an AMCR role when Colchester reverted to a 3-4-2-1 formation for the final 20 minutes.
For Colchester to improve their build-up and attacking play, especially on the left side, they may need to encourage their wide players to maintain width or explore alternative ways to break down compact defences.
ABOVE: John-Kymani Gordon’s being shepherded into central areas and being dispossessed by Accrington, and his shot map for the season so far.
In fact, probably one of the highlights for the U’s fans has to be the 71 minutes they’ve been able to enjoy of 23 year-old Owura Edwards from the bench.
In both games the winger has stretched the play following his introductions, hugging the left touchline and eager to receive the ball and face-up his opposing defender/s. Although right-footed, he seems entirely comfortable dribbling with either foot and his explosive pace in both matches resulted in the opposition doubling up on him, creating huge amounts of space for the likes of Mandela Egbo on the right hand side as the opposition shifted across to deal with the immediate danger posed by Edwards.
Edwards scored the equalizing goal getting on the end of an Payne cross against Bromley in the 60th minute, and although clearly raw (and prone to giving booking-worthy reactions when enduring rough play from the opposition) perhaps he is exactly what Colchester need to start taking advantage of and using from the 1st minute in games.
It would be easy to assume from the stats that show Jack Payne leading the chances created chart, Colchester having both the most amount of touches in the opposition box and shots on target per game that the slow start to the season has simply been down to defensive frailties rather than having a lackluster offensive presence, but you’d be wrong. Bar the opening game of the season where they conceded 4 to AFC Wimbledon, the U’s haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in any of their games since.
Tom Hopper, Samson Tovide (more on Samson in a planned later blog) and Lyle Taylor have been the three players asked to play in the two forward positions across the opening 5 games. They’ve played 873 minutes between themselves, scored 0 goals and have a combined xG of 1.62.
So where have the 6 goals they’ve scored this season come from? And what about those 133 touches in the opposition box?
Well. Goalwise: 3 them have come from Ben Goodliffe. The 25 year old centre-back the U’s signed on a free from Sutton United over the summer. Even more impressive when you factor in the 6’1 top scorer has only actually started just one game this season and come on as a substitute in just one other taking his total played league minutes to 75, averaging a goal every 25 minutes.
So Colchester have been employing him as a last-ditch striker right?
Nope.
You see, most of Colchester’s 6 goals this season have come either as a result of offensive set-pieces or in the second phase of play following an offensive set-piece. Colchester prefer to play the ball short from these attacking dead-ball situations and from corners especially favour taking it short followed by either a cross or a short pass to the edge of the box for a dribble and shooting opportunity either just in or slightly outside the box. This plays a large part in explaining both Colchester’s high shot on target % rate compared to actual goals scored and touches in the box.
LEFT: Colchester’s corner delivery map versus Accrington
RIGHT: Colchester’s shot map versus Accrington with all shots in the box from defenders following set-pieces.
As Colchester gear up for a 280+ mile trip on Saturday to face a Morecambe team who sit on 0 points following five 1-0 defeats in the league this season, if now isn’t the perfect opportunity for an already admittedly frustrated Danny Cowley to try get his side firing and their second win of the campaign, then when is?
Don’t be surprised to see Owura Edwards and Ben Goodliffe come into the side for well deserved starts.
We’ll take another look at Colchester United later on in the season in a future blog post.